Fig. 4
Accuracy of predicted versus observed effect size (ES) estimates in malaria CRTs. A: Correlation between the predicted and overall observed effect size by type of intervention. Diagonal dash: line of equality. B: The percentage of predicted effect size estimates that were underestimated (relative percentage difference <-10%), no difference (relative percentage difference − 10–10%) or overestimated (relative percentage difference > 10%) according to overall observed effect size estimates. C: Correlation of observed effect size estimates by the 1st and 2nd year of the trial by type of intervention. Diagonal dash: line of equality D: The percentage of observed effect size estimates that were higher in the 1st or 2nd year of the trial (relative percentage difference > 10%) or were no different (relative percentage difference < 10%). E: D: Correlation between the overall observed effect size estimates versus the trial starting year by type of intervention. rs: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Brackets: rs 95%CIs