Fig. 3

Accuracy of predicted versus observed prevalence and incidence outcomes in malaria CRT control arms. A & B: Correlation between the predicted and overall observed prevalence/incidence stratified by method used to predict estimates: using data (D; blue) using no data (ND; red) and overall (black). C & D: The percentage of predicted prevalence/incidence estimates that were underestimated (relative percentage difference <-10%), no difference (relative percentage difference − 10–10%) or overestimated (relative percentage difference > 10%) according to overall observed estimates. E & F: Correlation matrix comparing the predicted prevalence/incidence with estimates observed throughout the trial (observed), in year 1 (Observed y1) and in year 2 (Observed y2). rs: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Brackets: rs 95%CIs. *: rs p-value < 0.05