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Table 3 Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for all approaches in both scenarios. In scenario a): ignoring biomarker information (n=1171); Scenario b): only analysing patients which tested C-peptide positive and autoantibody negative (n=96); Scenario c): analyse all patients, adjusting for biomarker results in the model (n=1,171, validated in n=96). CI: credible interval

From: Comparison of Bayesian approaches for developing prediction models in rare disease: application to the identification of patients with Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young

 

Approach

Mean

CI: 2.5%

CI: 97.5%

Scenario a)

Original

0.93

0.90

0.94

Albert Offset

0.93

0.90

0.94

Re-estimation

0.94

0.90

0.96

Recalibration

0.93

0.92

0.94

Scenario b)

Original

0.86

0.81

0.89

Albert Offset

0.86

0.82

0.89

Re-estimation

0.92

0.89

0.94

Recalibration

0.87

0.84

0.90

Scenario c)

Re-estimation mixture

0.92

0.87

0.94

Recalibration mixture

0.87

0.84

0.90